Why Experts Say Mortgage Rates Should Ease in 2026 for Tampa Bay Buyers

You want mortgage rates to fall—and they've started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go? For **Tampa and Hillsborough County** buyers, the news is positive: experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. This is great news for anyone planning to buy a home in **Carrollwood, Westchase, or South Tampa**.

One of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year treasury yield. Here's why understanding this relationship helps you plan your next move in the **Tampa real estate market**.

The Key Link: Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down. It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. The historical average gap between the two—known as the spread—is about 1.76 percentage points (176 basis points).

Why Is the Mortgage Rate Spread Narrowing? (A Key Signal for Buyers)

The spread acts as a measure of fear in the market. Over the past couple of years, lingering economic uncertainty caused this gap to widen, which is why mortgage rates have been unusually high. **However, that spread is now starting to shrink.**

Here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty, the gap between the yield and the rate is narrowing as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

This narrowing of the spread, combined with forecast declines in the 10-year treasury yield itself, creates a strong scenario for lower mortgage rates in **Tampa Bay** going into 2026. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

What Mortgage Rates Are Experts Forecasting for 2026?

The **10-year treasury yield** itself is also forecast to come down in the months ahead. When you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down next year. This long-term relationship is why experts currently project a gradual mortgage rate decline, with a fringe possibility rates could hit the upper 5s toward the end of 2026.

For example, take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written. When you add the average spread of 1.76%, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

How these dynamics play out will depend on the economy, job market, and inflation. But the current outlook for **Tampa Bay housing** is a gradual mortgage rate decline, with things starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line for Tampa Bay Homebuyers

Keeping up with the latest shifts in the **Tampa Bay mortgage market** can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced local agent like Soukaina Aroui on your side matters—we do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates and personalized guidance on buying a home in **Hillsborough County**, let's connect so you have someone to help you plan your next move in this evolving market.